When Georges Pompidou, French Prime Minister under Charles de Gaulle, succeeded the latter as President, he coined a political slogan that may well characterize the outcome of the 2024 European elections: “Change in continuity.”
Between June 6 and 9, citizens across the 27 European Union (EU) Member States cast their ballots to elect Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) for the 2024-2029 term. The elections hold profound implications, particularly in a time of crisis – the war in Ukraine and the climate emergency, among others. Why? They will shape the EU’s next five years in Brussels by determining the composition of the 720-member European Parliament, appointing the 26 European Commissioners and their President, and the President of the European Council.
Here are the main takeaways, a little over a week after the votes were cast:
- Continuity in majority: Despite a slight decline of 9 seats, the current majority coalition of the EPP (Conservatives), S&D (Socialists and Democrats), and Renew (Liberals) remains dominant with 400 seats out of 720. These groups are poised to influence the appointments to EU “top jobs” such as the European Commission President, President of the EU Parliament, President of the EU Council and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and set the political agenda for the next five years.
- EPP up, Left steady, Renew and Greens down: The EPP strengthened its position with a gain of 10 seats (186 seats total), augmented by strong victories in Germany and Spain. The S&D maintained stability with 135 seats, aided by strong showings from parties like PSOE in Spain and French Socialists, while the Radical Left GUE also held ground. However, Renew saw a significant setback, with a loss of 23 seats (79 seats total), largely due to the defeat that President Macron’s party suffered in France. The Greens also faced challenges, losing 18 seats (53 seats total) amid backlash over EU Green Deal policies.
- Rise of far-right parties: Eurosceptic, nationalist, radical, and far-right parties consolidated their presence, winning approximately a quarter of the seats in the European Parliament. These parties are expected to split into three distinct groups: the Conservative and Reformist ECR group aligning with PM Meloni’s party and the Polish PiS; the Far-Right ID group including French RN and Dutch PVV; and Non-Attached members where Viktor Orban’s Fidesz currently lies. This ideological division complicates efforts to form unified political blocs, limiting their influence in EU parliamentary work, structure and nominations.
- Incumbent Ursula Von der Leyen to secure a second term as President of the European Commission? The EPP victory means that their candidate for the European Commission, Ms. Von Der Leyens is likely to be presented to the Parliament for confirmation. While she has a theoretical majority (EPP, S&D and Renew – 400 seats/720), her confirmation is not guaranteed – in 2019, she was elected by only nine votes. France’s influence and support for former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi are affected by Renew’s losses and President Macron’s consequential call for a snap legislative election. Some S&D members may also defect due to Ms. Von der Leyen’s softened stance on the Green Deal. However, she might gain support from Italian PM Meloni’s ECR group as she strengthened ties with Ms. Meloni before the elections.
What’s Next?
- Mid-June: Over the next three weeks, political groups will be formed, and their leaders will be elected in the European Parliament.
- June 27-28: European Council meeting to designate candidates for the EU “Top Jobs” mentioned above and to outline the EU’s Strategic Agenda for 2024-2029.
- July 16-19: European Parliament’s constitutive Plenary session, where the EU Commission President-designate will present their political priorities based on the Council’s agenda, followed by a confirmation vote by MEPs requiring a simple majority (361 votes).
- July 22-25: Constituent meetings of Parliamentary Committees to assign MEPs to different committees and elect Presidents and Vice-Presidents for each.
- September: Member States to propose nominees for Commissioner positions.
- September 16-19: European Parliament Plenary session, expected to elect the European Commission President (if not previously done in July).
- October-November: Commissioner-designate hearings conducted by relevant parliamentary committees to assess their suitability for portfolios.
- December 1: The new president of the European Council is expected to take office.
- December 16-19: European Parliament to conduct a collective vote on the new College of Commissioners, with one vote for the list of all 26 Commissioners-designate.
- End of December/Early 2025: EU Commission to present its 2025 Work Programme, outlining legislative proposals for the upcoming year.
The European Commission’s 2019-2024 mandate has seen a remarkable surge in legislation aimed at enhancing digitalization. This comprehensive approach has resulted in updating EU cybersecurity rules, establishing the world’s first AI regulation, reworking Product liability rules, creating rules for digital markets, renewing the e-commerce Directive via the Digital Services Act, and overhauling the data services market through the Data Act. These new rules will be implemented during the 2024-2029 mandate.
At BSA, we are committed to working closely with our members to ensure effective adoption and compliance with the new digital legislation. The tech industry will need significant support to navigate these regulations and understand how the various rules of the Digital Single Market interact and overlap. To this end, we have outlined several recommendations for the European Commission to facilitate this process, with a strong focus on the implementation of these new digital regulations and maximizing their benefits within BSA’s Guide to Europe’s Digital Transformation.
